|
|
Thursday, April 17, 2025
Morning Markets: Corn +0.75 old & +0.25 new.
Beans +4.25 old & +2 new. Wheat +4.
All Topflight locations will be closed TOMORROW, April 18th in observance of Good Friday
MARKET SUMMARY:
Good morning. Ag markets are quietly mixed in light volume to kick off the last trading day of the week this week, with the three-day holiday weekend and good weather for planting/fieldwork having caused a lot of traders' attention to shift elsewhere over the last 48 hours or so. For Thursday, markets will be curious as to what is said on the port fee decision for Chinese built/flagged vessels that is expected to come in an announcement at some point during the day today, but otherwise, new news that is not related to global trade or tariffs continues to be scarce and hard to come by, with Monday's crop progress report the next fundamental item on the agenda. Corn futures to start Thursday are unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is 2-3 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1.50/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are up 80-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 580 points, and the US$ index is up 15-20 points; the S&P500 is up 30 points, and the NASDAQ is up 150 points. Gold futures are quietly lower but again made new all-time and contract highs overnight.
Crude Oil is up $0.89 at $63.36
US Dollar is up at $99.345
Global Equities: Japan -0.0%, China +1.6%, and Europe -0.6%
Dow futures are down 583 points at 39,270
EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.0% and Wheat +0.0%
WEATHER:
- There continues to be large model differences on the coming Midwest rainfall this weekend, with the EU continuing to be wetter in the western and northwestern Midwest than the GFS is; the EU is showing the possibility at 1-2" for E KS/E NE, W IA, and SW MN that the GFS is not picking up on. There is better agreement further to the south and east, where heavier rains of 2-3" are expected between now and Monday evening. Temperatures will be a mixed bag through the weekend, with a shard gradient between cooler western air and warmer eastern air being the catalyst for all the precip in the near term.
- Still little to nothing to note in the forecast for South America into the weekend, as models continue to see increasing rainfall throughout Brazil's ag regions, while Argentina stays in drier pattern for most areas besides the far southeast. Temperatures will be average to slightly below average for Argentina, and average to slightly above average for most of Brazil.
OTHER HEADLINES:
- The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly Cattle on Feed report for the month of April after the markets close this afternoon; the numbers are expected to show the US feedlot herd as of April 1 at 11.613 mil head, which would be down about 2% from both last month and last year. Placements in the month are seen at 1.812 mil head (103% of year ago) and marketings are seen at 1.719 mil head (101% of year ago).
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released their weekly crop progress update last night, which showed soybean harvest pace continues to be behind normal at just 4.9% complete; this is well behind last year and also some 26% below the recent five-year average and appears to be one of the slower starts to the campaign on record. Corn harvest advanced to 28% complete on the week, up from 23% last week. The group made no production estimate updates to either crop.
- Weekly data from the European Commission shows EU soft wheat exports so far in the current marketing year have reached 16.7 mmt's as of April 13th, which is down nearly 9.0 mmt's from the same date last year. Data also sows barely exports in the season down 19% from last year at 4.05 mmt's, while corn imports are inversely seen 14% higher than last year at 16.5 mmt's. The current marketing year ends on June 31.
- Along similar lines, France's farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday lowered their estimate of the country's soft wheat exports outside of the EU in the current marketing year from 3.2 mmt's to 3.1 mmt's, which if accurate would be down nearly 70% from last year. However, exports to members of the EU were seen at 6.42 mmt's, which would be up 2% from last year.
- In a post on Truth Social late yesterday afternoon, President Trump said that he and his trade team had made "Big Progress!" in trade discussions with Japan, following discussions in Washington yesterday. There was no immediate deal or halt to current tariffs announced, but the two sides said groundwork had been laid for additional discussions to happen before the end of the month. Nonetheless, Japan's Finance Minister earlier on Thursday said he was "deeply concerned" over potential global economic fallout from Trump's new tariffs.
- On the interest rate front, investors fully expect another quarter-point rate cut from the European Central Bank this morning, while US Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday took a more hawkish stance than previously on the US rate outlook, saying Trump's tariffs had raised the likelihood that employment and inflation push back further away from the Fed's longer-term targets.
EXPORT NEWS:
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending April 10th is expected to show corn sales in the week in a range of 600k-1.8 mil mt's, soybean sales in a range of 100k-800k mt's, and wheat sales in a range of (100k)-200k mt's. 2025/26 sales are seen between 0-300k mt's for corn, 0-150k mt's for soybeans, and 0-300k mt's for wheat.
Be safe!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
|
|
